As we all know from the excellent coverage in the Daily Post during the last few days, the business community in North Wales remains shell-shocked at the decision by the German energy companies RWE npower and E-ON to pull out of plans to build an £8 billion new nuclear reactor at Wylfa B in Anglesey.
With the county consistently rated as one of the poorest areas in the UK, the development was seen as the panacea for its lack of economic opportunities, with experts estimating that it had the potential to contribute over £2 billion to the economy over the next fifteen years, creating 5,000 construction jobs and 800 direct jobs at the new power station.
More importantly, it would have given Wales, and Anglesey, the opportunity to become a major centre of expertise in the sector through the creation of value added projects around the new development. For example, helping to create an energy technology park around the power station and ensuring that the skilled workforce needed for its construction are sourced locally were just two simple examples of how the project could have created additional benefit for the Anglesey economy. It would have also enabled Bangor University to become an international centre of research and development excellence in this sector.
But despite the bad news, local and national politicians remain convinced that new investors can be attracted to the site. There does not seem to be any specific technical or economic rationale for withdrawal with insiders suggesting that political pressure may have been the main factor in the decision to pull out of not only plans for Wylfa, but other nuclear developments in the UK. In fact, with the German government recently stating that it would abandon any new nuclear power plants within its own borders, many have been expecting that country’s energy companies to pull out of any new developments in the nuclear industry.
The quality of the project itself was emphasised by the chief executive of RWE npower, who went on record to make the point that not only was Wales one of the "most attractive" new nuclear sites across Europe but that any new investor would be able to build on the work that the current consortium had put together during the last three years.
Another positive development from this story is that both the Welsh Government and the UK Government have now co-operated closely to try and deal with this issue. After recent wranglings between Cardiff Bay and Westminster, they have come together to save a project that could create thousands of jobs within an economic blackspot.
Of course, this was not always the case and during the last administration, there was a difference of opinion between the Economic Development Minister, who supported Wylfa B, and the Environment Minister who was diametrically opposed and even called for a public inquiry into any new nuclear facilities in Wales. Certainly, such confusion did not help engender a coherent governmental approach to the development.
Indeed, Carwyn Jones’ positive comments last week on the project were to be welcomed, as was the news that he had already held urgent talks with the UK energy secretary to try and secure new investors for the project. Therefore, perhaps the one silver lining in the Wylfa B story from last week is that we may see greater co-operation between the two governments and a more cohesive and joined up “Team Wales’ approach that sees any political differences put aside in favour of economic imperatives. Certainly, with the prosperity of the Welsh economy continuing to fall relative to many other parts of Europe, such co-operation is vital for the future of our nation.
Daily Post column April 2nd 2012.
A FUTURE FOR WYLFA B?
UK Government, Welsh Government, Wylfa
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Apr 032012
A BUDGET FOR JOBS AND GROWTH? ONLY IF THE WELSH GOVERNMENT WANT IT TO BE
UK budget, Welsh Economy, Welsh Government
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Mar 262012
When I began my academic career in 1992 at Durham University Business School, I worked on a project that, on every Budget Day, would look specifically at the Chancellor’s financial proposals and their implications for the small firm sector.
In an age where tweeting was the noise made by a canary in a Warner Brothers cartoon and the fax machine was god, we spent time huddled around televisions trying to work out exactly what the implications were for the entrepreneurial community as the Chancellor spoke from the House of Commons.
Our analysis would then be written up by teams of academics and edited into one report. This would then be printed off overnight in the North East of England before being flown down to London first thing in the morning where TSB, the sponsor, would distribute to their clients at a morning press conference.
How different the response to the Chancellor’s budget has been this year, with both politicians and pundits racing each other to be the first out with a tweet on the results of the budget without even any careful and measured contemplation of the details.
In fact, barely had the Chancellor taken his seat that the Welsh Government had rushed out a statement stating that “This is a disappointing budget for Wales. It's not a budget for jobs and growth”.
Given that they had less than two hours to digest the detailed statements from the Treasury, one would have imagined that this behaviour was a hostage to fortune, especially given that, as in all budgets, the devil is always in the detail.
More relevantly, I have always considered that any new programme or initiative announced by the Chancellor is a chance for Welsh business to ensure, with the support of Welsh Government, that it takes full advantage of any new opportunities.
For example, the further reduction in corporation tax will mean that the UK will, by 2014, have the most competitive rate in the whole of the G7. Given this, the task for the Welsh Government is to link its own offering to this national indicator and ensure that the ‘brand’ for Wales attracts more businesses to this region rather than any other.
But it is not only in areas such as corporation tax in which Wales can sell itself. The interventionist approach by the UK government to various parts of the economic system could also reap real dividends for the Welsh economy if only we take full advantage of them. Let’s take finance for small firms.
The Government has provided up to £20 billion to support business under the National Loan Guarantee Scheme (NLGS). It has also announced £1.2 billion for the Business Finance Partnership (BFP) to develop new forms of non-bank finance. Surely, as one of the only regions with its own government owned bank in the form of Finance Wales, ministers could put forward a coherent strategy so that these funds, along with the money already held by Finance Wales, could create a far bigger source of funding for Welsh firms?
The UK Government also announced an ambition to more than double annual UK exports to £1 trillion by 2020, expanding not only the role of UK Export Finance but doubling the support to UKTI. Given that Wales has enormous potential through its manufacturing industry for international trading, but one of the lowest proportion of active exporters of any region, this presents a real opportunity for Cardiff Bay to work with Whitehall to get more Welsh firms to trade overseas.
But there is also support for specific Welsh industries. Take, for example, the 100 per cent per cent capital allowances for plant and machinery at the Deeside enterprise zone. This could, if supported by other programmes in training and skills development from the Welsh Government, make North East Wales the engine room of advanced manufacturing once more, certainly in comparison to other competing parts of the UK and after years of decline.
Indeed, there is now a massive opportunity for Broughton to bid for the £60 million UK Centre for Aerodynamics that will support innovation in aerospace technology but only if the Welsh Government works closely with the Wales Office to come up with the best plan possible to secure this within our borders.
The new corporation tax reliefs for industries such as the video game, animation and high-end television could potentially help the further development of these sectors in Wale, especially if serious attention is paid to ICT and the creative industries in the same way that the Minister for Business has recently courted the biosciences industry.
Indeed, that sector should be boosted by the introduction of a reduced 10 per cent rate of corporation tax for profits attributed to patents and similar types of intellectual property. Now all it needs is for the Welsh Government to announce a specific enterprise zone for this industry in Swansea that is centred on the Institute for Life Sciences.
Therefore, apart from political brinkmanship, can the Welsh Government really say that this was not a budget for jobs and growth? Certainly, it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy if it refused to take full advantage of the opportunities for boosting Welsh industry at a time when we need to punch above our weight as a nation to not only attract companies to invest here, but to grow and develop those businesses with real potential for job creation.
In an age where tweeting was the noise made by a canary in a Warner Brothers cartoon and the fax machine was god, we spent time huddled around televisions trying to work out exactly what the implications were for the entrepreneurial community as the Chancellor spoke from the House of Commons.
Our analysis would then be written up by teams of academics and edited into one report. This would then be printed off overnight in the North East of England before being flown down to London first thing in the morning where TSB, the sponsor, would distribute to their clients at a morning press conference.
How different the response to the Chancellor’s budget has been this year, with both politicians and pundits racing each other to be the first out with a tweet on the results of the budget without even any careful and measured contemplation of the details.
In fact, barely had the Chancellor taken his seat that the Welsh Government had rushed out a statement stating that “This is a disappointing budget for Wales. It's not a budget for jobs and growth”.
Given that they had less than two hours to digest the detailed statements from the Treasury, one would have imagined that this behaviour was a hostage to fortune, especially given that, as in all budgets, the devil is always in the detail.
More relevantly, I have always considered that any new programme or initiative announced by the Chancellor is a chance for Welsh business to ensure, with the support of Welsh Government, that it takes full advantage of any new opportunities.
For example, the further reduction in corporation tax will mean that the UK will, by 2014, have the most competitive rate in the whole of the G7. Given this, the task for the Welsh Government is to link its own offering to this national indicator and ensure that the ‘brand’ for Wales attracts more businesses to this region rather than any other.
But it is not only in areas such as corporation tax in which Wales can sell itself. The interventionist approach by the UK government to various parts of the economic system could also reap real dividends for the Welsh economy if only we take full advantage of them. Let’s take finance for small firms.
The Government has provided up to £20 billion to support business under the National Loan Guarantee Scheme (NLGS). It has also announced £1.2 billion for the Business Finance Partnership (BFP) to develop new forms of non-bank finance. Surely, as one of the only regions with its own government owned bank in the form of Finance Wales, ministers could put forward a coherent strategy so that these funds, along with the money already held by Finance Wales, could create a far bigger source of funding for Welsh firms?
The UK Government also announced an ambition to more than double annual UK exports to £1 trillion by 2020, expanding not only the role of UK Export Finance but doubling the support to UKTI. Given that Wales has enormous potential through its manufacturing industry for international trading, but one of the lowest proportion of active exporters of any region, this presents a real opportunity for Cardiff Bay to work with Whitehall to get more Welsh firms to trade overseas.
But there is also support for specific Welsh industries. Take, for example, the 100 per cent per cent capital allowances for plant and machinery at the Deeside enterprise zone. This could, if supported by other programmes in training and skills development from the Welsh Government, make North East Wales the engine room of advanced manufacturing once more, certainly in comparison to other competing parts of the UK and after years of decline.
Indeed, there is now a massive opportunity for Broughton to bid for the £60 million UK Centre for Aerodynamics that will support innovation in aerospace technology but only if the Welsh Government works closely with the Wales Office to come up with the best plan possible to secure this within our borders.
The new corporation tax reliefs for industries such as the video game, animation and high-end television could potentially help the further development of these sectors in Wale, especially if serious attention is paid to ICT and the creative industries in the same way that the Minister for Business has recently courted the biosciences industry.
Indeed, that sector should be boosted by the introduction of a reduced 10 per cent rate of corporation tax for profits attributed to patents and similar types of intellectual property. Now all it needs is for the Welsh Government to announce a specific enterprise zone for this industry in Swansea that is centred on the Institute for Life Sciences.
Therefore, apart from political brinkmanship, can the Welsh Government really say that this was not a budget for jobs and growth? Certainly, it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy if it refused to take full advantage of the opportunities for boosting Welsh industry at a time when we need to punch above our weight as a nation to not only attract companies to invest here, but to grow and develop those businesses with real potential for job creation.
WALES AND EUROPEAN STRUCTURAL FUNDS
Welsh Economy, Welsh Government
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Mar 192012
Last week, there was a political storm over the latest GDP figures to emerge from the European Union and which measure the relative prosperity of its regions.
As expected, West Wales and the Valleys – consisting of 15 local authorities – lost ground on nearly every other part of Europe despite being given £1.2bn of European funding for the period 2000-2006 under the Objective 1 programme.
Not surprisingly, the opposition parties went straight on the attack to accuse the Labour Party of failing to use what it once termed a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity”.
In riposte, that anonymous individual known as the Welsh Government spokesperson responded by noting that GDP per head in West Wales and the Valleys has broadly kept pace with the UK as a whole since 2001.
Was he correct in dismissing such arguments?
Technically speaking, yes he was, as the rate of growth in West Wales and the Valleys is approximately the same as that for the rest of the UK for the period 2000-2009. But given that only London and Hampshire has shown any positive growth out of all the regions over that period, as compared to an overall growth of 23% across the European Union, it does beg the question of what the last UK Government was doing in terms of regional economic policy. That is a discussion for another day. Instead we should focus on the main reason behind European Structural Funding such as Objective 1 and the current round of Convergence funds.
Let’s be clear, Structural Funds are a mechanism for reducing the disparities between regions in Europe. Their role is not, per se, to close the gap between West Wales and the Valleys and the United Kingdom. In that respect, we should focus any analysis on the economic impact of the programmes on a European level, especially the performance relative to the other Objective 1 regions supported by the European Commission during the last decade.
So what do these statistics tell us?
Back in 2000, when we first received European funding, West Wales and the Valleys was the sixth most prosperous Objective 1 region in Europe with a GDP per head of 17,300 euros. However, by 2009, the region had fallen to 42nd out of 50 regions with a GDP per head of 15,700 euros.
And, given our emphasis on high quality tourism, I am sure it would surprise many to find that both the Canaries and the Algarve have a higher level of relative prosperity than West Wales and the Valleys.
Indeed, in relative terms, nearly every other Objective 1 region in Europe has performed better economically during this decade. Some have argued that the economic decline in West Wales and the Valleys is down to the world recession during 2008 and 2009, and the data suggests that the other Objective 1 areas in the UK, including South Yorkshire, Merseyside and Cornwall, were not as resilient as other poorer areas on the Continent.
Yet even if we only consider the growth in GDP per head for the period 2000-2007, we find that Wales’ poorest region had the worse growth rate – at 21.4% – of any disadvantaged area in Europe. In contrast, the Spanish region of Galicia grew at 63.6% over the same period.
So what went wrong?
Certainly the evidence, contrary to the statements from the Welsh Government, suggests that West Wales and the Valleys, relative to other areas in receipt of Objective 1 funding, has performed badly. Some have suggested that this relative failure is down to the fact that there were too many projects being funded through this programme and resources were spread too thinly across our poorest region.
As a result, the new £2bn Convergence programme, which replaced Objective 1 funding, has focused on fewer strategic projects. Yet others would argue that the failure to engage properly with the private sector, in conjunction with the dominance of public sector-driven projects, is a trend that has actually increased under the new round of European funding.
While the next few rounds of GDP statistics will tell their own story of the relative economic success of current Convergence funding, it is becoming clear that West Wales and the Valleys will now qualify for an unprecedented third round of financial support from the European Structural Funds programme.
Given the way that other regions of Europe in receipt of such support have grown economically while West Wales and the Valleys has floundered, I would suggest that Welsh policymakers should start looking at how other poorer parts of Europe have grown their economies, as it seems we still have much to learn in ensuring that our disadvantaged regions become competitive again.
As expected, West Wales and the Valleys – consisting of 15 local authorities – lost ground on nearly every other part of Europe despite being given £1.2bn of European funding for the period 2000-2006 under the Objective 1 programme.
Not surprisingly, the opposition parties went straight on the attack to accuse the Labour Party of failing to use what it once termed a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity”.
In riposte, that anonymous individual known as the Welsh Government spokesperson responded by noting that GDP per head in West Wales and the Valleys has broadly kept pace with the UK as a whole since 2001.
Was he correct in dismissing such arguments?
Technically speaking, yes he was, as the rate of growth in West Wales and the Valleys is approximately the same as that for the rest of the UK for the period 2000-2009. But given that only London and Hampshire has shown any positive growth out of all the regions over that period, as compared to an overall growth of 23% across the European Union, it does beg the question of what the last UK Government was doing in terms of regional economic policy. That is a discussion for another day. Instead we should focus on the main reason behind European Structural Funding such as Objective 1 and the current round of Convergence funds.
Let’s be clear, Structural Funds are a mechanism for reducing the disparities between regions in Europe. Their role is not, per se, to close the gap between West Wales and the Valleys and the United Kingdom. In that respect, we should focus any analysis on the economic impact of the programmes on a European level, especially the performance relative to the other Objective 1 regions supported by the European Commission during the last decade.
So what do these statistics tell us?
Back in 2000, when we first received European funding, West Wales and the Valleys was the sixth most prosperous Objective 1 region in Europe with a GDP per head of 17,300 euros. However, by 2009, the region had fallen to 42nd out of 50 regions with a GDP per head of 15,700 euros.
And, given our emphasis on high quality tourism, I am sure it would surprise many to find that both the Canaries and the Algarve have a higher level of relative prosperity than West Wales and the Valleys.
Indeed, in relative terms, nearly every other Objective 1 region in Europe has performed better economically during this decade. Some have argued that the economic decline in West Wales and the Valleys is down to the world recession during 2008 and 2009, and the data suggests that the other Objective 1 areas in the UK, including South Yorkshire, Merseyside and Cornwall, were not as resilient as other poorer areas on the Continent.
Yet even if we only consider the growth in GDP per head for the period 2000-2007, we find that Wales’ poorest region had the worse growth rate – at 21.4% – of any disadvantaged area in Europe. In contrast, the Spanish region of Galicia grew at 63.6% over the same period.
So what went wrong?
Certainly the evidence, contrary to the statements from the Welsh Government, suggests that West Wales and the Valleys, relative to other areas in receipt of Objective 1 funding, has performed badly. Some have suggested that this relative failure is down to the fact that there were too many projects being funded through this programme and resources were spread too thinly across our poorest region.
As a result, the new £2bn Convergence programme, which replaced Objective 1 funding, has focused on fewer strategic projects. Yet others would argue that the failure to engage properly with the private sector, in conjunction with the dominance of public sector-driven projects, is a trend that has actually increased under the new round of European funding.
While the next few rounds of GDP statistics will tell their own story of the relative economic success of current Convergence funding, it is becoming clear that West Wales and the Valleys will now qualify for an unprecedented third round of financial support from the European Structural Funds programme.
Given the way that other regions of Europe in receipt of such support have grown economically while West Wales and the Valleys has floundered, I would suggest that Welsh policymakers should start looking at how other poorer parts of Europe have grown their economies, as it seems we still have much to learn in ensuring that our disadvantaged regions become competitive again.
UKTI AND WELSH FIRMS
Welsh Economy, Welsh Government
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Jan 172012
Over the weekend, I had a twitter dialogue with Rhuannedd Richards, currently chief executive of Plaid Cymru.
She was responding to a comment by the First Minister that having access to the UK Government's international division, UKTI, was one advantage that Wales had as being part of the UK. Rhuannedd noted that she was "Surprised that Carwyn Jones used how Wales "benefits" from UKTI to justify continuation of UK. Wales has never been important to UKTI".
I am wondering where she received this information as it is certainly different to what I was told by UKTI in a meeting a few weeks ago. Indeed, I was informed that UKTI had supported 376 Welsh firms to internationalise their activities even though this should be a devolved matter. Indeed, more crucially, I wonder how this compares to whatever services are now offered by the Welsh Government, especially given that it was Ieuan Wyn Jones, when economic development minister, who abolished IBW (International Business Wales) which previously had responsibility for all internationalisation activities?
So what can UKTI offer to Welsh businesses?
The UKTI’s Overseas Market Introduction Service is a flexible business tool that lets British companies commission the services of trade teams located in overseas missions across the world. The Market Visit Support programme also provides assistance to new-to-export or new-to-market SMEs visiting overseas markets as part of their trade development process. However, in this respect, UKTI also provides some direct funding to the Welsh Government to support their own mission programmes.
UKTI also works in partnership with other organisations to deliver internationalisation initiatives. For example, the Export Marketing Research Scheme is an initiative run by the British Chambers of Commerce as a contractor to UKTI. It provides advice and co-funding (at up to £5k per project) for eligible companies to carry out their own market research overseas. The Chambers can also provide support for an Export Communications Review, which examines a company’s strategic communications approach to trading overseas.
But the First Minister should not just quote the example of UKTI when it is politically expedient if the Department for Business in Wales, as I have been reliably informed, is doing little to ensure a closer relationship with this body.
And if the economy is important to the Welsh Government, then more could, and should be done to help businesses take full advantage of exporting opportunities. In fact, Welsh firms still only account for 2.6 per cent of all UK exporters despite a growth in the value of exports since 1999, which suggests considerable potential within the Welsh business community for further overseas expansion if only the right support and advice was available.
However, that can only be achieved if there is better co-ordination and co-operation between the Welsh Government’s international branch and the UKTI in 2012. Not only could this begin a long overdue entente cordiale between the two administrations but, more importantly, should benefit the Welsh economy at a time when businesses need every help they can get.
She was responding to a comment by the First Minister that having access to the UK Government's international division, UKTI, was one advantage that Wales had as being part of the UK. Rhuannedd noted that she was "Surprised that Carwyn Jones used how Wales "benefits" from UKTI to justify continuation of UK. Wales has never been important to UKTI".
I am wondering where she received this information as it is certainly different to what I was told by UKTI in a meeting a few weeks ago. Indeed, I was informed that UKTI had supported 376 Welsh firms to internationalise their activities even though this should be a devolved matter. Indeed, more crucially, I wonder how this compares to whatever services are now offered by the Welsh Government, especially given that it was Ieuan Wyn Jones, when economic development minister, who abolished IBW (International Business Wales) which previously had responsibility for all internationalisation activities?
So what can UKTI offer to Welsh businesses?
The UKTI’s Overseas Market Introduction Service is a flexible business tool that lets British companies commission the services of trade teams located in overseas missions across the world. The Market Visit Support programme also provides assistance to new-to-export or new-to-market SMEs visiting overseas markets as part of their trade development process. However, in this respect, UKTI also provides some direct funding to the Welsh Government to support their own mission programmes.
UKTI also works in partnership with other organisations to deliver internationalisation initiatives. For example, the Export Marketing Research Scheme is an initiative run by the British Chambers of Commerce as a contractor to UKTI. It provides advice and co-funding (at up to £5k per project) for eligible companies to carry out their own market research overseas. The Chambers can also provide support for an Export Communications Review, which examines a company’s strategic communications approach to trading overseas.
But the First Minister should not just quote the example of UKTI when it is politically expedient if the Department for Business in Wales, as I have been reliably informed, is doing little to ensure a closer relationship with this body.
And if the economy is important to the Welsh Government, then more could, and should be done to help businesses take full advantage of exporting opportunities. In fact, Welsh firms still only account for 2.6 per cent of all UK exporters despite a growth in the value of exports since 1999, which suggests considerable potential within the Welsh business community for further overseas expansion if only the right support and advice was available.
However, that can only be achieved if there is better co-ordination and co-operation between the Welsh Government’s international branch and the UKTI in 2012. Not only could this begin a long overdue entente cordiale between the two administrations but, more importantly, should benefit the Welsh economy at a time when businesses need every help they can get.
DID CARWYN GET IT WRONG? HOW IMPORTANT IS THE EU FOR WELSH EXPORTS?
Welsh Economy, Welsh Government
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Jan 042012
Given the recent spats between the devolved nations and the UK Government over the decision by David Cameron to exercise the UK veto over the EU treaty in December, there have been numerous statements on how this will have an effect on Welsh trade with the European Union.
According to a recent statement from the First Minister of Wales, "some 50% of exports from Wales are to the EU". Yet recent data from the Welsh Government's own statistics suggest that it is considerably less than that, as figure 1 below shows. In fact, only Scotland had a lower proportion of exports with the EU in the third quarter of 2011.
Will this mean that any downturn in the eurozone will affect Wales less than the majority of other UK regions?
Certainly, as figure 2 demonstrates, there has been a gradual long term decline in the proportion of Welsh exports that go to EU countries since 1999. The export profile of Wales has changed considerably since devolution and whilst Europe is still a key partner, the fact that we have moved away from a dependency of 75 per cent on the EU back in 2002 to 40 per cent in 2011 shows that, thankfully, we now have a far more balanced exporting economy.
A further piece of good news is that the relative importance of exporting has grown in Wales, and now accounts for 4.6 per cent of all UK exports as compared to 3.7 per cent in 1999. Europe has played a minor part in this growth - the total value of EU exports has only increased by 16.6 per cent during 1999-2011 whilst overall Welsh exports have gone up in value by 107.3 per cent over the same period.
Yes, the EU remains a major trading partner but thankfully, exports to other parts of the World are also becoming important to the future of the Welsh economy. Perhaps that, and the growth in overall exports, is what the Welsh Government should have been celebrating last month rather than trying to score political points against David Cameron.
More on this in today's Western Mail.
Figure 1: Exports to the EU as a percentage of total exports, by UK region, quarter 3 2011.
Table 2: EU exports as a proportion of total Welsh exports, 1999-2011
Figure 4. Welsh exports, by region, quarter 3, 1999
According to a recent statement from the First Minister of Wales, "some 50% of exports from Wales are to the EU". Yet recent data from the Welsh Government's own statistics suggest that it is considerably less than that, as figure 1 below shows. In fact, only Scotland had a lower proportion of exports with the EU in the third quarter of 2011.
Will this mean that any downturn in the eurozone will affect Wales less than the majority of other UK regions?
Certainly, as figure 2 demonstrates, there has been a gradual long term decline in the proportion of Welsh exports that go to EU countries since 1999. The export profile of Wales has changed considerably since devolution and whilst Europe is still a key partner, the fact that we have moved away from a dependency of 75 per cent on the EU back in 2002 to 40 per cent in 2011 shows that, thankfully, we now have a far more balanced exporting economy.
A further piece of good news is that the relative importance of exporting has grown in Wales, and now accounts for 4.6 per cent of all UK exports as compared to 3.7 per cent in 1999. Europe has played a minor part in this growth - the total value of EU exports has only increased by 16.6 per cent during 1999-2011 whilst overall Welsh exports have gone up in value by 107.3 per cent over the same period.
Yes, the EU remains a major trading partner but thankfully, exports to other parts of the World are also becoming important to the future of the Welsh economy. Perhaps that, and the growth in overall exports, is what the Welsh Government should have been celebrating last month rather than trying to score political points against David Cameron.
More on this in today's Western Mail.
Figure 1: Exports to the EU as a percentage of total exports, by UK region, quarter 3 2011.
Table 2: EU exports as a proportion of total Welsh exports, 1999-2011
Figure 4. Welsh exports, by region, quarter 3, 1999
Figure 4. Welsh exports, by region, quarter 3, 2011
Nov 102011
Yesterday the Welsh Government's Council for Economic Renewal met to discuss the way forward for the Welsh economy.
Formerly known as the Business Partnership Council, it provides advice to help inform economic and business policies in Wales.
Under the Government of Wales Act 1998, the Government has a statutory duty to consult with businesses where the exercise of its functions impact on them.
This duty to consult was strengthened by the Government of Wales Act 2006, which required Welsh Ministers to make a Business Scheme setting out how they proposed to consult with business.
The Council for Economic Renewal is made up of a range of business, social enterprise and trade union representatives and is chaired by the First Minister.
According to today's Western Mail, leading members include :
A fuller list of normal attendees is available on the Welsh Government website. However, it is worth comparing this group to the Council of Economic Advisers which the Scottish Government has put together:
Formerly known as the Business Partnership Council, it provides advice to help inform economic and business policies in Wales.
Under the Government of Wales Act 1998, the Government has a statutory duty to consult with businesses where the exercise of its functions impact on them.
This duty to consult was strengthened by the Government of Wales Act 2006, which required Welsh Ministers to make a Business Scheme setting out how they proposed to consult with business.
The Council for Economic Renewal is made up of a range of business, social enterprise and trade union representatives and is chaired by the First Minister.
According to today's Western Mail, leading members include :
- PAUL BYARD: Head of external affairs for manufacturing employers’ organisation EEF in Wales. Said earlier this year that the group’s membership had shown optimism that there would be future growth.
- JULIE COOK: Wales TUC national officer. Has been critical of public sector job cuts, particularly for its perceived disproportionate effect on women.
- HEATHER EASON: Policy adviser at Wales Social Partners Unit. Also a freelance translator who speaks fluent Esperanto.
- IAN GALLAGHER: Policy manager for south-west England and Wales at the Freight Transport Association. Has called for a cut in tolls on the Severn crossing.
- ALAN GARLEY: GMB regional secretary for Wales. Was prominent in the campaign to keep the Burberry factory in the Rhondda Valley open.
- RICHARD HOUDMONT: Director for Wales and Ireland for the Chartered Institute of Marketing. A well-known business commentator and advocate of greater innovation.
- RICHARD JENKINS: Director of FMB Wales. Has called on the Welsh Government to make stronger representations to Westminster for a reduction in the rate of VAT levied on repair and maintenance work.
- MARTIN MANSFIELD: General Secretary of the Wales TUC. Recently reiterated his belief in the value of collaboration to help businesses through economic difficulties without job losses.
- PHIL ORFORD: Chief executive of the Forum of Private Business. Said this year that small firms would continue to experience tough times due to reduced public spending, increased costs and late payments.
- RICHARD PRICE: Planning and policy adviser for Wales for the Home Builders Federation. Said last week that many housebuilders were concerned about a eurozone fall-out.
- NON RHYS: Policy manager for the Federation of Small Businesses in Wales. Said earlier this year: “Our members have told us that they want to employ, but do not have the resources”.
- ANDY RICHARDS: President of the Wales TUC. Has described public sector cuts as an “assault on our class designed to shift the blame for the economic crisis to the public sector”.
- DAVID ROSSER: The director of CBI Wales, who has joined the Welsh Government on a six-month secondment. He is taking up the position of director of innovation and anchor companies within the Department for Business, Enterprise, Technology and Science from January.
- DEREK WALKER: Chief executive of the Wales Co-operative Centre. Has argued that employee-owned businesses can enjoy a “real competitive advantage in tough economic conditions”.
- GARETH WILLIAMS: Chairman of the Institute of Directors in Wales. Called on the Welsh Government earlier this year to promote Wales internationally
A fuller list of normal attendees is available on the Welsh Government website. However, it is worth comparing this group to the Council of Economic Advisers which the Scottish Government has put together:
- SIR GEORGE MATHEWSON (Chair) One of the most eminent Scottish businessman of his generation. His period as Chief Executive and then Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland inspired the transformation of the bank into a global success story. Sir George previously also spent 6 years as the chief executive of the Scottish Development Agency.
- CRAWFORD BEVERIDGE, Executive-Vice President and Chairman of Sun Microsystems in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. From 1991 to 2000, Crawford Beveridge served as Chief Executive of Scottish Enterprise. He brings a wealth of international business experience.
- FRANCES CAIRNCROSS - Rector of Exeter College at Oxford University. Previously she worked for 20 years on 'The Economist' magazine. She chaired the Economic and Social Research Council for six years until 2007 and is a well respected author whose works include 'Costing the Earth' and 'Green, inc'.
- PROFESSOR ANDREW HUGHES - Hallett Professor of Economics and Public Policy at George Mason University in the US and visiting Professor of Economics at the University of St Andrews. He specialises in international economic policy and has acted as a consultant for the World Bank, the IMF, the Federal Reserve Board, the UN, the OECD, the European Commission and central banks around the world.
- PROFESSOR JOHN KAY - A leading economist and author. The author of several influential books, Professor Kay is a regular contributor to the Financial Times. He is a fellow of St John's College, Oxford and served as Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. He has served as a Professor at the London Business School and the University of Oxford. He is currently a visiting professor at the LSE.
- PROFESSOR ALEX KEMP - Schlumberger Professor of Petroleum Economics at the University of Aberdeen. He is a leading energy and taxation expert who has advised the World Bank, the United Nations, and individual governments around the world. In recent times, Professor Kemp has expanded his research to include the economics of renewable energy and how best to foster carbon capture.
- PROFESSOR FINN KYDLAND - Henley Professor of Economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He was awarded the Nobel Prize for his work in dynamic macroeconomics in 2004.
- JIM MCCOLL - Chairman and Chief Executive of Clyde Blowers - a company transformed under his leadership into a portfolio of global engineering companies. He also serves as Chairman of the Welfare to Work Forum which has seen 15,000 Scots enter employment.
- PROFESSOR SIR JAMES MIRRLEES - Professor Emeritus at Cambridge University and distinguished professor-at-large at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Sir James was awarded the Nobel Prize for his work on economic models and equations about situations where information is asymmetrical or incomplete.
- PROFESSOR FRANCES RUANE - Director of Ireland's Economic and Social Research Institute previously an Associate Professor of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin. She is widely published in the area of international economic and industrial development.
- THE LORD SMITH OF KELVIN - Chairman of the Weir Group and Scottish and Southern Energy. He also serves as a non-executive director of 3i Group, Standard Bank Group and Aegon UK. Lord Smith chairs the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games Organising Committee, and also chairs the Smith Group, a group of dedicated educators and business and civic leaders who are determined to offer more opportunities to young Scots
With respect to all the individuals on the Council for Economic Renewal involved who are merely doing their job and have been invited by the Welsh Government to represent their organisations, this is like comparing Porthmadog Town FC with Man Utd or an X-Factor finalist with Bruce Springsteen.
In fact, I am at a loss to understand why the Welsh Government would set up a system to take economic advice from a group made up largely of business representatives/lobbyists and trade unionists rather than a forum of leading businesspeople and international thinkers. Indeed, with the honourable exceptions of Gareth Williams of the IOD and Phil Orford of the FSB, there is not one individual on the Council for Economic Renewal who has operated at the coalface of business outside of Wales.
Does this merely reflect the lack of ambition in Wales compared to our Celtic Cousins? Why do we continue to be inward looking in everything that we do and revert back to the old committee style approach to everything?
Surely we are better than that?
Wales could and should have developed a completely new way of thinking in providing economic advice to the government. In fact, if we need innovative new ideas and entrepreneurial plans to grow the economy during the next few years, then we should bring together entrepreneurs, business leaders and innovators to achieve this. Indeed, on this blog, back in December 2006, I did suggest that:
“the First Minister should urgently convene a summit of our leading businesspeople and entrepreneurs - such as Sir Terry Matthews, Sir Christopher Evans and Henry Engelhardt - to get their views on what is needed to kick start the Welsh economy.”
And for the first time this week, Ieuan Wyn Jones can't blame the current Labour Government for this state of affairs as he himself, as the Minister for Economic Development, put together this new Council for Economic Renewal by essentially using the same people who had sat on the Business Partnership Council for years rather than doing something creative and innovative.
I understand that there is statutory requirement to consult with business groups but can't that be done in a separate form? If not, then the Council for Economic Renewal should have all the chairs of the nine industry panels - all leading business people in Wales - represented and reduce the trade union and lobbying groups representation to two seats each.
Perhaps then we can finally come up with a more positive approach to sorting out the problems of the Welsh economy rather than the defeatist approach put forward by the First Minister yesterday.
Nov 102011
Yesterday the Welsh Government's Council for Economic Renewal met to discuss the way forward for the Welsh economy.
Formerly known as the Business Partnership Council, it provides advice to help inform economic and business policies in Wales.
Under the Government of Wales Act 1998, the Government has a statutory duty to consult with businesses where the exercise of its functions impact on them.
This duty to consult was strengthened by the Government of Wales Act 2006, which required Welsh Ministers to make a Business Scheme setting out how they proposed to consult with business.
The Council for Economic Renewal is made up of a range of business, social enterprise and trade union representatives and is chaired by the First Minister.
According to today's Western Mail, leading members include :
A fuller list of normal attendees is available on the Welsh Government website. However, it is worth comparing this group to the Council of Economic Advisers which the Scottish Government has put together:
Formerly known as the Business Partnership Council, it provides advice to help inform economic and business policies in Wales.
Under the Government of Wales Act 1998, the Government has a statutory duty to consult with businesses where the exercise of its functions impact on them.
This duty to consult was strengthened by the Government of Wales Act 2006, which required Welsh Ministers to make a Business Scheme setting out how they proposed to consult with business.
The Council for Economic Renewal is made up of a range of business, social enterprise and trade union representatives and is chaired by the First Minister.
According to today's Western Mail, leading members include :
- PAUL BYARD: Head of external affairs for manufacturing employers’ organisation EEF in Wales. Said earlier this year that the group’s membership had shown optimism that there would be future growth.
- JULIE COOK: Wales TUC national officer. Has been critical of public sector job cuts, particularly for its perceived disproportionate effect on women.
- HEATHER EASON: Policy adviser at Wales Social Partners Unit. Also a freelance translator who speaks fluent Esperanto.
- IAN GALLAGHER: Policy manager for south-west England and Wales at the Freight Transport Association. Has called for a cut in tolls on the Severn crossing.
- ALAN GARLEY: GMB regional secretary for Wales. Was prominent in the campaign to keep the Burberry factory in the Rhondda Valley open.
- RICHARD HOUDMONT: Director for Wales and Ireland for the Chartered Institute of Marketing. A well-known business commentator and advocate of greater innovation.
- RICHARD JENKINS: Director of FMB Wales. Has called on the Welsh Government to make stronger representations to Westminster for a reduction in the rate of VAT levied on repair and maintenance work.
- MARTIN MANSFIELD: General Secretary of the Wales TUC. Recently reiterated his belief in the value of collaboration to help businesses through economic difficulties without job losses.
- PHIL ORFORD: Chief executive of the Forum of Private Business. Said this year that small firms would continue to experience tough times due to reduced public spending, increased costs and late payments.
- RICHARD PRICE: Planning and policy adviser for Wales for the Home Builders Federation. Said last week that many housebuilders were concerned about a eurozone fall-out.
- NON RHYS: Policy manager for the Federation of Small Businesses in Wales. Said earlier this year: “Our members have told us that they want to employ, but do not have the resources”.
- ANDY RICHARDS: President of the Wales TUC. Has described public sector cuts as an “assault on our class designed to shift the blame for the economic crisis to the public sector”.
- DAVID ROSSER: The director of CBI Wales, who has joined the Welsh Government on a six-month secondment. He is taking up the position of director of innovation and anchor companies within the Department for Business, Enterprise, Technology and Science from January.
- DEREK WALKER: Chief executive of the Wales Co-operative Centre. Has argued that employee-owned businesses can enjoy a “real competitive advantage in tough economic conditions”.
- GARETH WILLIAMS: Chairman of the Institute of Directors in Wales. Called on the Welsh Government earlier this year to promote Wales internationally
A fuller list of normal attendees is available on the Welsh Government website. However, it is worth comparing this group to the Council of Economic Advisers which the Scottish Government has put together:
- SIR GEORGE MATHEWSON (Chair) One of the most eminent Scottish businessman of his generation. His period as Chief Executive and then Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland inspired the transformation of the bank into a global success story. Sir George previously also spent 6 years as the chief executive of the Scottish Development Agency.
- CRAWFORD BEVERIDGE, Executive-Vice President and Chairman of Sun Microsystems in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. From 1991 to 2000, Crawford Beveridge served as Chief Executive of Scottish Enterprise. He brings a wealth of international business experience.
- FRANCES CAIRNCROSS - Rector of Exeter College at Oxford University. Previously she worked for 20 years on 'The Economist' magazine. She chaired the Economic and Social Research Council for six years until 2007 and is a well respected author whose works include 'Costing the Earth' and 'Green, inc'.
- PROFESSOR ANDREW HUGHES - Hallett Professor of Economics and Public Policy at George Mason University in the US and visiting Professor of Economics at the University of St Andrews. He specialises in international economic policy and has acted as a consultant for the World Bank, the IMF, the Federal Reserve Board, the UN, the OECD, the European Commission and central banks around the world.
- PROFESSOR JOHN KAY - A leading economist and author. The author of several influential books, Professor Kay is a regular contributor to the Financial Times. He is a fellow of St John's College, Oxford and served as Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. He has served as a Professor at the London Business School and the University of Oxford. He is currently a visiting professor at the LSE.
- PROFESSOR ALEX KEMP - Schlumberger Professor of Petroleum Economics at the University of Aberdeen. He is a leading energy and taxation expert who has advised the World Bank, the United Nations, and individual governments around the world. In recent times, Professor Kemp has expanded his research to include the economics of renewable energy and how best to foster carbon capture.
- PROFESSOR FINN KYDLAND - Henley Professor of Economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He was awarded the Nobel Prize for his work in dynamic macroeconomics in 2004.
- JIM MCCOLL - Chairman and Chief Executive of Clyde Blowers - a company transformed under his leadership into a portfolio of global engineering companies. He also serves as Chairman of the Welfare to Work Forum which has seen 15,000 Scots enter employment.
- PROFESSOR SIR JAMES MIRRLEES - Professor Emeritus at Cambridge University and distinguished professor-at-large at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Sir James was awarded the Nobel Prize for his work on economic models and equations about situations where information is asymmetrical or incomplete.
- PROFESSOR FRANCES RUANE - Director of Ireland's Economic and Social Research Institute previously an Associate Professor of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin. She is widely published in the area of international economic and industrial development.
- THE LORD SMITH OF KELVIN - Chairman of the Weir Group and Scottish and Southern Energy. He also serves as a non-executive director of 3i Group, Standard Bank Group and Aegon UK. Lord Smith chairs the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games Organising Committee, and also chairs the Smith Group, a group of dedicated educators and business and civic leaders who are determined to offer more opportunities to young Scots
With respect to all the individuals on the Council for Economic Renewal involved who are merely doing their job and have been invited by the Welsh Government to represent their organisations, this is like comparing Porthmadog Town FC with Man Utd or an X-Factor finalist with Bruce Springsteen.
In fact, I am at a loss to understand why the Welsh Government would set up a system to take economic advice from a group made up largely of business representatives/lobbyists and trade unionists rather than a forum of leading businesspeople and international thinkers. Indeed, with the honourable exceptions of Gareth Williams of the IOD and Phil Orford of the FSB, there is not one individual on the Council for Economic Renewal who has operated at the coalface of business outside of Wales.
Does this merely reflect the lack of ambition in Wales compared to our Celtic Cousins? Why do we continue to be inward looking in everything that we do and revert back to the old committee style approach to everything?
Surely we are better than that?
Wales could and should have developed a completely new way of thinking in providing economic advice to the government. In fact, if we need innovative new ideas and entrepreneurial plans to grow the economy during the next few years, then we should bring together entrepreneurs, business leaders and innovators to achieve this. Indeed, on this blog, back in December 2006, I did suggest that:
“the First Minister should urgently convene a summit of our leading businesspeople and entrepreneurs - such as Sir Terry Matthews, Sir Christopher Evans and Henry Engelhardt - to get their views on what is needed to kick start the Welsh economy.”
And for the first time this week, Ieuan Wyn Jones can't blame the current Labour Government for this state of affairs as he himself, as the Minister for Economic Development, put together this new Council for Economic Renewal by essentially using the same people who had sat on the Business Partnership Council for years rather than doing something creative and innovative.
I understand that there is statutory requirement to consult with business groups but can't that be done in a separate form? If not, then the Council for Economic Renewal should have all the chairs of the nine industry panels - all leading business people in Wales - represented and reduce the trade union and lobbying groups representation to two seats each.
Perhaps then we can finally come up with a more positive approach to sorting out the problems of the Welsh economy rather than the defeatist approach put forward by the First Minister yesterday.
Nov 062011
Last month, a campaign was launched to increase the number of women entrepreneurs in the UK by 100,000 over the next decade.
Everywoman, the largest female business community in the UK, has linked up with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB)'s Real Life Entrepreneurs Campaign to help encourage more women to set up new ventures in the UK.
Their argument is simple, namely that an extra 150,000 start-ups would be created per year if women started businesses at the same rate as men. This is not surprising as, according to the last Global Entrepreneurship Monitor report for the UK, female early-stage entrepreneurial activity in 2010 was 4 per cent of the adult population as compared to 9 per cent for men i.e. the ratio of female to male early-stage entrepreneurial activity was 44 per cent.
As well as a focus on encouraging more women, the FSB's campaign will also promote enterprise amongst young people, the over-50s, those with disabilities, ex-armed forces personnel and those who are currently living on benefits.
This strategy by the FSB should be widely applauded but for those of us who have been involved in entrepreneurship in Wales, it has a sense of real deja vu, given that, over a decade ago, there was a particular focus within the Entrepreneurship Action Plan for Wales on encouraging more starts-ups amongst women, minority ethnic groups, social enterprise and young people.
In fact, I remember that, thanks to the promotional campaigns managed by the Welsh Development Agency and the various start-ups programmes targeted at women, female entrepreneurship in Wales in 2004 was at three quarters that of the male entrepreneurial activity, one of the best gender balances in the whole World. By focusing on issues such as blocked mobility in the workplace and the issue of the so-called glass ceilings, more women in Wales were encouraged to start their own business.
Since the demise of the Entrepreneurship Action Plan in 2005, the targeting of enterprise support towards women has also died a death. In fact, there is now a policy by the Welsh Government that all new businesses are exactly the same and, as a result, there is no specific support to encourage more women to start their own businesses.
Indeed, there is an expectation that women should conform to male behaviours despite overwhelming academic evidence that female experience and practice can differ significantly to those of male entrepreneurs.
For example, there is strong evidence that women start businesses with fewer resources, restricted access to business clients, and slower and less reliable delivery of orders from suppliers. In terms of finance, there is also a widespread belief that women face greater difficulties in obtaining funding for a business start than their male counterparts, with female entrepreneurs starting off with lower levels of cash in the business.
Unlike what is happening in Wales, research shows that enterprise training courses should focus on addressing the weaker financial position that many women start from, given the reluctance of women to take on debt at start-up, which has long term implications for the development of their business. In addition, there should be greater use of training materials that feature successful women entrepreneurs in a variety of industries. Such role models expand the horizons and stimulate the aspirations of potential female entrepreneurs.
Women are a key part of any enterprise economy, and with female unemployment at its highest for twenty three years, there could, and should, be a focus on encouraging greater numbers of female run businesses if Wales is to emerge from the economic downturn as a more entrepreneurial nation.
So what could the Welsh Government do?
According to the Women’s Enterprise Policy Group, policymakers could introduce a number of measures to realise the multi-billion pound opportunity which growth from female-led enterprises can bring to the economy. These include the appointment of a women’s enterprise champion within government to raise awareness of economic benefits of encouraging more women to start and grow businesses. There should also be investment in business growth programmes for existing female entrepreneurs and doubling the number of women entrepreneurs using mentors and/or networking opportunities by promoting activities amongst networking groups. Finally, given the importance of higher and further education in economic development, government should ensure that current university and college entrepreneurship support is attractive and useful to young women, closing the gap between the numbers of young men and young women starting businesses.
Whereas very little is being done in Wales, the same is not true elsewhere in the UK. For example, a new £5.5m Women’s International Centre for Economic Development in Liverpool has just opened to provide a range of services focused on women’s start-up businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises. This includes ’incubation’ units for new and high growth women enterprises and an international research and knowledge centre focused on women’s enterprise and wider economic development issues.
The first woman to hold the business and economic development portfolio in the Welsh Government has hit the ground running with the creation of taskforces which are examining everything from micro-businesses to city regions to business rates.
Given this, isn’t it time also for this government to also look closely at the massive entrepreneurial potential that exists amongst half of the Welsh population and do something positive to encourage more female entrepreneurs in Wales?





















